BEIJING, Sept. 17, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The latest CKGSB Investor Sentiment Survey points to cautious investor sentiment in China’s A-share market in Q3 2026, even as earnings at listed companies have begun to recover. During the May to September 2026 survey period, respondents lowered their expectations for A-share market gains, reduced expected returns and showed less willingness to invest.
58.6% expected A-share prices to rise, down 5.2 percentage points from April 2026. The expected rate of return fell 1.8 percentage points to negative 0.7%. The pullback was sharpest for direct stock investment: the net proportion seeking to increase stock holdings fell 7.3 percentage points to 10.7%; the corresponding figure for equity funds declined 1.2 percentage points to 13.4%.
Trading activity in China’s A-share market continued to rise. From December 2024 to August 2026, turnover ratios rose from 2.39 to 4.2 for the Shanghai Composite Index and from 5.84 to 8.5 for the Shenzhen Composite Index. Price-to-book ratios, however, rose only modestly—from 1.13 to 1.25 in Shanghai and from 1.93 to 2.4 in Shenzhen. Liu Jing, CKGSB Professor of Accounting and Finance and leader of the survey, interprets this mix as evidence of sharp divergence among investors rather than broad-based optimism, with investors divided over whether current prices represent value or risk.
That restraint contrasts with a recovery in corporate profits. Year-on-year trailing twelve-month net profit growth among A-share listed companies reached 5.9% in June 2026, after remaining negative from June 2022 through March 2026. Private enterprises recorded 36.7% net profit growth in Q2 2026, while strategic emerging industries reached 36%.
Confidence remains fragile beyond equities. The survey indicates softer household consumption and a prolonged property adjustment. It also reflects a structural imbalance: although China needs private enterprises and consumers to generate demand, financial capital continues to flow disproportionately to the government and state-owned enterprises. Directing even more capital toward the public sector is unlikely to address China’s insufficient demand and consumption, as government bodies and SOEs primarily support the investment side of the economy.
The CKGSB Investor Sentiment Survey is an academically grounded, high-frequency, large-sample barometer of sentiment in China’s capital markets. Combining behavioral insights with fundamental data, it tracks sentiment alongside macroeconomic and equity-market conditions, offering global investors context for assessing changes in China’s markets.
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